GeminiVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
J.D. Vance 39.5%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$300
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
39.0% / 40.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 9:37 PMNov 10, 28, 12:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
J.D. Vance40%
Compare venues· J.D. Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall83% match · auto | High | 39% | 0pt | $218.5K | $37M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketMost active88% match · auto | Medium | 43% | +4pt | $1.1M | $55.5M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Medium | 40% | 0pt | $300 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | |
 Myriad85% match · linked | Low | 35% | -5pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 43% | +4pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 40% | +1pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 41% | +2pt | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 42% | +3pt | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 41% | +2pt | — | — | 3 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt82% match · linked | — | 38% | -1pt | — | — | 1 minute ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
50%
48%
43%
+4 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Polymarket
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
49%
+0.1pt43%
27%
+125 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$681.6M
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
+0.2pt41.4%
-0.5pt25.2%
+0.2pt23.5%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
2y
-0.3pt41.4%
+0.3pt24.6%
-0.2pt15%
+35 more outcomes
Community forecast804 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
8.4 pts73y
+0.1pt34.6%
-0.1pt19.6%
+0.0pt8.6%
+29 more outcomes
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Republican presidential nominee
2y
-1.0pt39.8%
-1.0pt30.6%
-0.1pt5.1%
+35 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$54.3M
24h Vol$218.5K
KALSHIAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2.0 pts2y
-2.0pt38%
-1.0pt28%
-1.0pt5%
+11 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?
2y
+0.7pt42.4%
-1.1pt24.5%
6.2%
+22 more outcomes
Community forecast66 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Smarkets
Republican Presidential Nominee
40%
25.3%
5.3%
+23 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.1K
24h Vol$0
SMARKETSRules
2028 Republican Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D.
- Vance wins and formally accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Republican Party convention records, public confirmations by the Republican Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- Vance wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Republican nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.1k70.0%KALSHIMarco Rubio — No4h ago
KALSHIMarco Rubio — No4h ago$9.9k99.5%KALSHIBrian Kemp — No7h ago
KALSHIBrian Kemp — No7h ago$3.4k98.8%KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago$2.7k99.0%KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago$1.4k98.9%KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago$3.1k99.0%KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago$7.9k98.8%KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No14h ago$1.8k97.1%POLYMARKETWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — No0x3c63…3e40yesterday
POLYMARKETWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — No0x3c63…3e40yesterdayVolume trend
$300Jul 272d of dataJul 28
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2028 Republican Nominee for President?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D.
- Vance wins and formally accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be official Republican Party convention records, public confirmations by the Republican Party, or news sources reporting on either.
- Vance wins the nomination but declines or does not accept it, this market will resolve to “No.” Any replacement of the Republican nominee after acceptance will not affect the resolution of this market.
- This event is mutually exclusive.