FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Yes 50%
Yes 50%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump pardons or commutes Ghislaine Maxwell?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
KalshiWill Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump pardon?
KalshiRules
This market predicts whether, while Donald J. Trump holds the office of President of the United States (ending when he leaves office on the scheduled date of January 20, 2029, or earlier), he will issue an executive grant of clemency that either pardons Ghislaine Maxwell or commutes her federal sentence.
- The market resolves to “Yes” the moment such clemency is made public through an official White House or Department of Justice announcement, a signed warrant released by the Office of the Pardon Attorney, or a notice in the Federal Register.
- Any conditional pardon or partial commutation also qualifies for this market’s purposes.
- If Trump leaves office without granting clemency to Maxwell, the market resolves “No”.
- Reputable news outlets that explicitly quote or reproduce the official clemency document may also serve as confirmation.
- Subsequent litigation, revocation, or state-level actions do not affect this market’s resolution.