Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 25, 12:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
KalshiWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsPresident Trump grants clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell by midterms?
Manifold MarketsGhislaine Maxwell makes it to the deposition?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.3K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $256.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $249.6K
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027? resolve?
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.