Science | Mercati Predittivi

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.2 pt (24h)3m

Before Jan 20, 2029

+1.0pt21%

Before 2028

-1.0pt12%

Before 2027

+0.2pt5%

+5 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale33,3 Mln USD

Volume 24h43,7K USD

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

December 31

September 30

-0.1pt1%

April 30

+3 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale66,7 Mln USD

Volume 24h16,1K USD

POLYMARKET

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

2.6 pt (24h)1a

Before 2035

+0.9pt86%

Before 2030

+6.0pt82%

Before 2029

-21.9pt48%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale268,6K USD

Volume 24h84,2K USD

KALSHI

When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?

5.0 pt (24h)1a

Before 2035

+11.0pt56%

Before 2032

48%

Before 2030

-19.0pt44%

+1 altri esiti

Qualità media (65)Spread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale127,4K USD

Volume 24h10,1K USD

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.7 pt (24h)3m

97%

Sì

-0.7pt3%

Alta qualità (82)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,9 Mln USD

Volume 24h3,4K USD

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

0.3 pt (24h)3m

-0.5pt74.5%

21.6%

+0.1pt2%

+3 altri esiti

Alta qualità (81)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale3,4 Mln USD

Volume 24h1,6K USD

POLYMARKET

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

95%

Sì

Alta qualità (80)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale458,1K USD

Volume 24h1,3K USD

KALSHI

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.3 pt (24h)3m

-0.3pt95%

Sì

+0.3pt5%

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale315,2K USD

Volume 24h1,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

0.6 pt (24h)3m

Sì

+0.6pt78%

22%

Alta qualità (79)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale333,6K USD

Volume 24h1,1K USD

KALSHI

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

2.0 pt (24h)2m

Above 0

+4.0pt49%

Above 1

-2.0pt18%

Above 2

-6.0pt8%

+5 altri esiti

Qualità media (70)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale102,7K USD

Volume 24h3,5K USD

KALSHI

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

0.5 pt (24h)21g

4.4-4.6m

+13.7pt76.8%

4.2-4.4m

-12.3pt17.9%

<4m

-0.2pt2.1%

+4 altri esiti

Qualità media (68)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale78,1K USD

Volume 24h1,5K USD

POLYMARKET

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

14.0 pt (24h)21g

before April 2027

83%

before 2027

80%

before December

71%

+3 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (42)Spread ampioLiquidità media

Volume totale20,6K USD

Volume 24h1,2K USD

KALSHI

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

19.0 pt (24h)4g

≤6

+19.0pt42.4%

+2.0pt11.9%

+1.0pt11%

+6 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (44)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale5,3K USD

Volume 24h2K USD

POLYMARKET

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.6 pt (24h)6m

+0.6pt91%

Sì

-0.6pt9%

Qualità media (58)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale146,5K USD

Volume 24h278,6 USD

POLYMARKET

Major volcano eruption in 2026?

At least 2

+16.0pt94%

At least 1

89%

At least 3

20%

Bassa qualità (39)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale14,1K USD

Volume 24h688,1 USD

KALSHI

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

5.0 pt (24h)

71%

Sì

-5.0pt29%

Qualità media (65)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale16K USD

Volume 24h272,5 USD

KALSHI

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

0.1 pt (24h)3m

94%

Sì

+0.1pt6%

Qualità media (74)Spread moderatoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale782,5K USD

Volume 24h164,3 USD

KALSHI

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3m

South Sudan

-1.0pt52%

Burundi

33%

Central African Republic

31%

+13 altri esiti

Qualità media (64)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale356,4K USD

Volume 24h192,7 USD

KALSHI

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

4.0 pt (24h)3m

Above 0

-4.0pt17%

Above 1

-4.0pt9%

Above 10

+3 altri esiti

Qualità media (56)Spread moderatoAlta liquidità

Volume totale139,6K USD

Volume 24h134,1 USD

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

2.0 pt (24h)3m

Sì

+2.0pt80%

20%

Qualità media (62)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale24,2K USD

Volume 24h249,9 USD

KALSHI

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3m

Uganda

+37.5pt100%

South Sudan

-1.0pt56%

Burundi

-1.0pt52%

+10 altri esiti

Qualità media (55)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale38,4K USD

Volume 24h122,8 USD

POLYMARKET

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

6.5 pt (24h)4g

+6.5pt51.9%

-2.0pt29.3%

-2.0pt11.3%

+4 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (48)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,3K USD

Volume 24h143 USD

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

2.0 pt (24h)3m

+1.0pt53.1%

+2.0pt36.5%

-4.0pt5.2%

+3 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (38)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,2 Mln USD

Volume 24h22 USD

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3m

14–16

+1.0pt50%

17–19

-0.5pt30%

11–13

-1.0pt13%

+4 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (44)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,4 Mln USD

Volume 24h2,2 USD

POLYMARKET

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

99%

Sì

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale815,9K USD

Volume 24h—

POLYMARKET

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1.0 pt (24h)6a

Oil

+1.0pt61%

Coal

10%

Gas

+7 altri esiti

Qualità media (59)Spread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale141,8K USD

Volume 24h81,2 USD

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3m

-1.0pt87%

Sì

+1.0pt13%

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoBassa liquiditàMercato poco profondo

Volume totale245,8K USD

Volume 24h27,1 USD

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

2.0 pt (24h)

90%

Sì

-2.0pt10%

Qualità media (69)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale118,6K USD

Volume 24h74,3 USD

KALSHI

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

94.1%

Sì

5.9%

Qualità media (67)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale131,7K USD

Volume 24h16,9 USD

POLYMARKET

US test scores in Reading in 2026?

0.2 pt (24h)1a

No significant difference

40%

Significant decrease

39%

Significant increase

+0.2pt6%

Qualità media (58)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale57,8K USD

Volume 24h66 USD

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

59%

China

28%

India

+2 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale158,6K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

96%

Sì

Qualità media (60)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale41,7K USD

Volume 24h36,6 USD

KALSHI

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

3.0 pt (24h)

81%

Sì

-3.0pt19%

Qualità media (63)Spread strettoLiquidità media

Volume totale24K USD

Volume 24h83 USD

KALSHI

Is Earth flat?

0.1 pt (24h)3m

+0.1pt99%

Sì

-0.1pt1%

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale55,3K USD

Volume 24h2 USD

POLYMARKET

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

Sì

50%

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale52,5K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?

1.0 pt (24h)2m

Lala

99%

Lowell

99%

Nolo

-1.0pt30%

+10 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (36)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale41,8K USD

Volume 24h6,3 USD

KALSHI

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Before 2040

40.8%

Before 2035

35.2%

Before 2030

24%

Bassa qualità (45)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale45,8K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?

1.0 pt (24h)4m

88%

Sì

-1.0pt12%

Qualità media (54)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale11K USD

Volume 24h86,3 USD

KALSHI

8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

63%

Sì

37%

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale43,8K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Before 2040

64%

Before 2035

60%

Before 2030

44%

+1 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale41,2K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?

2.2 pt (24h)

78%

Sì

-2.2pt22%

Qualità media (61)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale34,8K USD

Volume 24h3,4 USD

KALSHI

When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?

6.0 pt (24h)1m

before April 2027

93%

before 2027

56%

before December

49%

+3 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (46)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale21,1K USD

Volume 24h20 USD

KALSHI

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

1.0 pt (24h)9a

66%

Sì

+1.0pt34%

Qualità media (58)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale27,2K USD

Volume 24h3 USD

KALSHI

How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Above 300k

95%

Above 285k

94%

Above 325k

93%

+6 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (≤49)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale24,3K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

82%

Sì

18%

Qualità media (52)Spread ampioLiquidità media

Volume totale13,5K USD

Volume 24h19,8 USD

KALSHI

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

At least 440

79%

At least 445

22%

At least 450

13%

+2 altri esiti

Bassa qualità (37)Spread ampioLiquidità media

Volume totale13,9K USD

Volume 24h15,3 USD

KALSHI

Will a cotton candy lobster be caught in U.S. waters before 2027?

66%

Sì

34%

Bassa qualità (47)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale20K USD

Volume 24h—

KALSHI

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

5.0 pt (24h)

Sì

+5.0pt78%

22%

Qualità media (52)Spread ampioLiquidità media

Volume totale17K USD

Volume 24h3,3 USD

KALSHI

Scienza

Asset Cripto Correlati

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption in 2026?

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

US test scores in Reading in 2026?

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

Is Earth flat?

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?

What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?

8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?

When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

Will a cotton candy lobster be caught in U.S. waters before 2027?

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

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