Science | Mercati Predittivi

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.1%5m

Before Jan 20, 2029

+1.0%24%

Before 2028

17%

Before 2027

+0.1%7%

+6 altri esiti

100 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale33,3 Mln USD

Volume 24h41,8K USD

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

December 31

September 30

-0.1%3%

April 30

+3 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale63,6 Mln USD

Volume 24h24,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

0.8%5m

68%

Sì

-0.8%32%

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale213,5K USD

Volume 24h12,2K USD

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

1.0%5m

94%

Sì

-1.0%6%

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale314,3K USD

Volume 24h2,6K USD

KALSHI

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5m

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 altri esiti

Riferimento CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pt

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale325,7K USD

Volume 24h2,7K USD

KALSHI

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

1.0%5g

Aalo Atomics

99%

Antares Nuclear

96%

Valar Atomics

94%

+7 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale305,9K USD

Volume 24h1,5K USD

KALSHI

Total space launches in July

5.0%12g

Above 13

+1.0%94%

Above 14

-5.0%20%

Above 15

-2.0%2%

+5 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale70,3K USD

Volume 24h14,3K USD

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

74.3%

Sì

25.7%

Previsione della comunità138 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

0.5%5m

-1.0%55%

+0.5%42%

+3 altri esiti

91 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale3,2 Mln USD

Volume 24h572,6 USD

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

12.0%5g

Above 100

+1.0%99%

Above 25

99%

Above 50

99%

+8 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale56,3K USD

Volume 24h1,3K USD

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5m

96%

Sì

-0.3%4%

56 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,6 Mln USD

Volume 24h209 USD

KALSHI

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13a

75%

Sì

25%

Previsione della comunità2217 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

10.4%14h

+12.0%35%

+8.5%34%

+1.0%18%

+5 altri esiti

52 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale22,4K USD

Volume 24h2,4K USD

POLYMARKET

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

94%

Sì

Previsione della comunità21 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

90.3%

Sì

9.7%

Previsione della comunità18 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

12.0%14h

+12.0%90%

-10.5%11%

-2.7%1%

+4 altri esiti

79 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale7,1K USD

Volume 24h1,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Is Earth flat?

98%

Sì

56 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale51,7K USD

Volume 24h101,1 USD

POLYMARKET

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

1.0%4m

Above 0

+1.0%81%

Above 1

-5.0%65%

Above 2

-1.0%41%

+5 altri esiti

52 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità media

Volume totale56,3K USD

Volume 24h631,1 USD

KALSHI

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

93.8%

Sì

6.2%

Previsione della comunità57 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1.0%6a

Oil

-1.0%62%

Coal

13%

Gas

+7 altri esiti

72 • Qualità mediaSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale131,8K USD

Volume 24h203,6 USD

KALSHI

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

99%

Sì

Previsione della comunità28 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Sì

96%

Previsione della comunità999 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175a

88.1%

Sì

11.9%

Previsione della comunità75 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5m

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 altri esiti

56 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale115,1K USD

Volume 24h118,7 USD

KALSHI

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

81.7%

Sì

18.3%

Previsione della comunità73 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Gauss

-1.8%58.7%

Archimedes

+1.5%21.7%

Euler

+0.1%4.8%

+50 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità191 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

5.0%5m

69%

Sì

-5.0%31%

52 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale16,1K USD

Volume 24h1,8K USD

KALSHI

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23a

2027

99.4%

2028

99%

2029

99%

+12 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità38 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

24a

61.9%

Sì

38.1%

Previsione della comunità26 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

58%

Sì

42%

Previsione della comunità88 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

99%

Sì

Previsione della comunità25 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

5.5%5m

+0.1%78%

Sì

-0.1%22%

36 • Bassa qualitàSpread ampioBassa liquidità

Volume totale228K USD

Volume 24h795,2 USD

POLYMARKET

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

95.4%

Sì

4.6%

Previsione della comunità56 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

66.5%

Sì

33.5%

Previsione della comunità34 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

94.8%

Sì

5.2%

Previsione della comunità23 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

99%

Sì

Previsione della comunità141 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

91.2%

Sì

8.8%

Previsione della comunità21 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

94.6%

London, England, UK

94.5%

San Francisco, California, US

94.5%

+11 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità3 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Sì

54.5%

45.5%

Previsione della comunità249 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

61.7%

Sì

38.3%

Previsione della comunità242 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165a

88%

Sì

12%

Previsione della comunità127 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

73a

83.7%

Sì

16.3%

Previsione della comunità48 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Sì

90.2%

9.8%

Previsione della comunità22 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

13a

62.5%

Sì

37.5%

Previsione della comunità92 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

18a

Sì

50.3%

49.7%

Previsione della comunità471 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+6.0%68%

Ethiopia

+0.5%54%

+10 altri esiti

Riferimento CoinRithmUganda99%· ±1 pt

36 • Bassa qualitàSpread ampioBassa liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale28,9K USD

Volume 24h753,1 USD

POLYMARKET

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

90%

Sì

10%

Previsione della comunità95 previsoriTipo: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?

≥100

95.3%

≥200

86.2%

≥300

76.4%

+8 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità2 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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Asset Cripto Correlati

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Total space launches in July

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Is Earth flat?

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will I live to be 200 years old?

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?