Probabilità implicita attuale
No 96%+0.0pt
Qualita del mercato
70 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
259,2 €
Liquidità
9,1K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
4.0% / 4.8%
Spread
0.8 pt
Spread strettoVariazione 7g
-0.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 minuti fa
29 dic 25, 23:2531 mar 27, 0:00
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes4%
Trend del volume
$2953 lug25g di dati28 lug
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Natural Disaster in 2026?
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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
- Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.