Probabilità implicita attuale
No 94%
No 94%Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
5,1K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
6.0% / 6.7%
Spread
0.7 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
10
Variazione 7g
-0.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
29 dic 25, 23:25 UTC1 apr 27, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
- Incremento di prezzo:
- 0,1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- Sì
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.