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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Scienza
  3. Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

One-OffScienza9m
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 10%
Qualita del mercato

40 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

5,8K €

Liquidità media
Bid / Ask

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

11.1%

Spread ampio
Variazione 7g

-1.5%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

29 dic 25, 23:2731 mar 27, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Yes10%

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%

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Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.