Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 pt (24h)WeatherOne-OffScienza8m

PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Probabilità implicita attuale

No 96%+0.0pt

Qualita del mercato

70 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

259,2 €

Liquidità

9,1K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Spread stretto

Variazione 7g

-0.8 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 20 minuti fa

29 dic 25, 23:2531 mar 27, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Yes4%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Trend del volume

$295

3 lug25g di dati28 lug

Mercati Correlati

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

10,9K €

Sì: 4%

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

8K €

2: 54%

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,8K €

Above 125: 23%

KALSHI

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

180,6 €

Above 7: 34%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

24,8 €

Sì: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 €

0: 70%

POLYMARKET

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$63,332.02-3.04%

EthereumETH$1,881.38-3.65%

SolanaSOL$73.21-4.19%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0702-3.65%

XRPXRP$1.06-4.46%

BNBBNB$566.50-1.25%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.5 pt (24h)WeatherOne-OffScienza8m

PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Probabilità implicita attuale

No 96%+0.0pt

Qualita del mercato

70 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

259,2 €

Liquidità

9,1K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

4.0% / 4.8%

Spread

0.8 pt

Spread stretto

Variazione 7g

-0.8 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 20 minuti fa

29 dic 25, 23:2531 mar 27, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Yes4%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Trend del volume

$295

3 lug25g di dati28 lug

Mercati Correlati

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

10,9K €

Sì: 4%

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

8K €

2: 54%

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,8K €

Above 125: 23%

KALSHI

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

180,6 €

Above 7: 34%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

24,8 €

Sì: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 €

0: 70%

POLYMARKET

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$63,332.02-3.04%

EthereumETH$1,881.38-3.65%

SolanaSOL$73.21-4.19%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0702-3.65%

XRPXRP$1.06-4.46%

BNBBNB$566.50-1.25%

Notizie Correlate

NVIDIA Ising Calibration 1.5 Pushes Quantum Computing ForwardBlockchain.News

Crypto is the canary in the coal mine for the quantum computing threat, experts sayCoindesk

Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News

Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindesk

Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News

NVIDIA's Ising Decoder Slashes Color Code Errors 300xBlockchain.News

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.