Probabilità implicita attuale
No 94%
No 94%Qualità del mercato
33 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
40,4 €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
1.2% / 11.0%
Spread
9.8 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
4
Variazione 7g
-0.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 28 minuti fa
21 apr 26, 19:35 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
- Incremento di prezzo:
- 0,1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- Sì
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
PolymarketWill Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.