PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 97%-0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,4K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
1.9% / 3.4%
Spread
1.5 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-10.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
3 apr 26, 22:44 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
- For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 57,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7K €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 153,9K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume totale
- 286,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5K €
- When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027??
- Polymarket quota No al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027??
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.