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  3. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.5% (24h)One-OffScienzaWeather6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
2
2 63%+1.5%
In testa tra 6 esiti
Qualita del mercato

80 / 100

Alta qualità
Volume 24h

3,4K €

Liquidità

64,8K €

Alta liquidità
Bid / Ask

27.0% / 29.0%

Spread

7.4%

Spread moderato
Variazione 7g

-0.5%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 minuti fa

12 nov 25, 22:5431 dic 26, 0:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
5
5
0%

Esito scelto

263%

Regole

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

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When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

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Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%

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Regole

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.