KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
Before 2040 · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
—
Prezzo registrato
Before 2040 59%In testa tra 4 esiti
Before 2040 59%Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Open interest
24,6K USD
Open interest medioBid / Ask
— / —
Before 2040Spread
—
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
14 ago 25, 20:45 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · Before 2040
Caricamento del book selezionato…
—
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will someone run DOOM on a quantum computer by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold Marketswill i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegole
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyNature PhysicsScience AdvancesProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review ANature Communicationsthe National Institute of Standards and Technology official publicationsIBM Research peer-reviewed publicationsGoogle Quantum AI peer-reviewed publicationsQuantinuum peer-reviewed publicationsIonQ peer-reviewed publicationsMIT Technology ReviewIEEE Transactions on Quantum EngineeringQuantum Computing ReportScience MagazineReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNatureSciencePhysical Review Letters
Regole per ogni esito
- Before 2040
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
