KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Before 2040 64%In testa tra 4 esiti
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
17,7K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
3.8 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
14 ago 25, 20:45 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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KalshiRegole
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi quota Before 2040 al 64% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.