Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 78%
Previsori
52
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto29 dic 22, 09:32 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill someone run DOOM on a quantum computer by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026??
- Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.