Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
One-OffTecnologiaScienza13a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 55.3%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto1 nov 24, 15:39 UTC1 gen 40, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiWhich arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2040 for the market to resolve YES.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
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- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
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- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040??
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.