Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 61.4%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto1 nov 24, 15:42 UTC1 gen 35, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2035 for the market to resolve YES.
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 61% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035??
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.