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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto1 nov 24, 15:47 UTC1 gen 50, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2050 for the market to resolve YES.
Mercati aperti
CryptoKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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+97 altri esiti
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 67% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050??
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2050.
- Come viene liquidato Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.