Fed

Fed Decision in September?

1.0 pt (24h)6g

25 bps increase

52.5%

No change

-1.0pt47.5%

50+ bps decrease

+2 altri esiti

Riferimento CoinRithm25 bps increase52%· 2 pt di scarto tra venue

Alta qualità (≤89)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale105,1 Mln USD

Volume 24h1,6 Mln USD

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Hike 25bps

+2.0pt53.4%

Fed maintains rate

-2.0pt43.7%

Hike >25bps

+2 altri esiti

Alta qualità (≤89)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale40,6 Mln USD

Volume 24h2,5 Mln USD

KALSHI

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)3m

0 (0 bps)

+0.3pt93%

1 (25 bps)

-0.4pt5%

2 (50 bps)

+10 altri esiti

Alta qualità (≤89)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale51,6 Mln USD

Volume 24h52,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3m

Exactly 0 cuts

-0.8pt90.1%

Exactly 1 cut

+1.1pt8.9%

Exactly 2 cuts

-0.9pt1%

+18 altri esiti

Qualità media (69)Spread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale8,8 Mln USD

Volume 24h49,4K USD

KALSHI

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2028

+1.0pt85%

Before July 2027

-1.0pt83%

Before 2027

75%

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale3,9 Mln USD

Volume 24h20,5K USD

KALSHI

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Sì

70.3%

29.7%

Alta qualità (82)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale8,8 Mln USD

Volume 24h8,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed rate decision in September 2026

5.0 pt (24h)9g

Hike 25bps

+5.0pt48.6%

Fed maintains rate

-4.0pt44.9%

Cut 25bps

2.8%

+2 altri esiti

Alta qualità (90)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume 24h123,4K USD

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed Decision in October?

0.1 pt (24h)1m

No change

66%

25 bps increase

30.1%

25 bps decrease

-0.1pt2.9%

+2 altri esiti

Riferimento CoinRithmNo change68%· 1 pt di scarto tra venue

Alta qualità (≤89)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,4 Mln USD

Volume 24h47,4K USD

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3m

Anthropic

-0.8pt59.2%

SpaceX

38.8%

OpenAI

+0.1pt2%

+9 altri esiti

Alta qualità (87)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale6 Mln USD

Volume 24h9,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut before 2027?

2.4 pt (24h)3m

89%

Sì

+2.4pt11%

Alta qualità (90)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale1,2 Mln USD

Volume 24h45,7K USD

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.00%

99%

Above 3.25%

99%

+8 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,7 Mln USD

Volume 24h26,9K USD

KALSHI

Fed rate hike by which date?

2.0 pt (24h)1m

October Meeting

+2.0pt54.2%

September Meeting

+2.0pt45.8%

April Meeting

-0.1pt0%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale2,9 Mln USD

Volume 24h10,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by which date?

December Meeting

October Meeting

-0.1pt4%

January Meeting

-0.8pt0%

+5 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale3,4 Mln USD

Volume 24h7K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Fed maintains rate

+1.0pt65.7%

Hike 25bps

26.7%

Cut 25bps

-2.0pt3.8%

+2 altri esiti

Alta qualità (83)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale560,4K USD

Volume 24h11,8K USD

KALSHI

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

1.3 pt (24h)3m

Before Jan 31, 2028

+39.0pt67%

Before Jun 1, 2027

45%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+1.3pt9%

+5 altri esiti

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale720K USD

Volume 24h8K USD

KALSHI

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

7.9 pt (24h)3m

4.5%

+11.2pt100%

4.6%

+4.9pt100%

4.8%

+7.9pt100%

+7 altri esiti

Qualità media (71)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale324,9K USD

Volume 24h12,4K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in December?

0.8 pt (24h)3m

No change

48%

25 bps increase

43.1%

25 bps decrease

-0.8pt5.9%

+2 altri esiti

Alta qualità (81)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale565,4K USD

Volume 24h5K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

0.1 pt (24h)3m

+0.1pt94%

Sì

-0.1pt6%

Alta qualità (76)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale208,2K USD

Volume 24h11K USD

POLYMARKET

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.0%

-0.5pt41.2%

4.25%

+2.6pt23.5%

3.75%

-0.6pt21.6%

+12 altri esiti

Alta qualità (82)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale6,8 Mln USD

Volume 24h2,4K USD

POLYMARKET

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?

8.0 pt (24h)8g

Central Bank

-1.0pt92%

Good Day

+1.0pt88%

Productivity

88%

+43 altri esiti

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale88,6K USD

Volume 24h10,9K USD

KALSHI

Fed Decision in January?

0.5 pt (24h)4m

No change

58.6%

25 bps increase

-1.0pt23.1%

25 bps decrease

+0.5pt13.5%

+2 altri esiti

Alta qualità (79)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale68,1K USD

Volume 24h5,5K USD

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?

5.0 pt (24h)7g

55%

Sì

45%

Qualità media (61)Spread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume 24h18K USD

FORECASTEX

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

2.0 pt (24h)6g

Pause–Pause–Pause

-2.0pt46.1%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-0.1pt1%

Cut–Pause–Pause

-0.8pt0%

+6 altri esiti

Alta qualità (79)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale841K USD

Volume 24h4,8K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)

4.0 pt (24h)3m

H 0

+4.0pt48.6%

H 25

-1.0pt39%

C 25

-1.0pt7.6%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (58)Spread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume 24h17,3K USD

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3m

Anthony Fauci

+1.0pt38%

John Brennan

+2.0pt35%

Letitia James

16%

+38 altri esiti

Qualità media (≤74)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,5 Mln USD

Volume 24h1,5K USD

KALSHI

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)3m

1 (25 bps)

+1.0pt42.1%

0 (0 bps)

28%

2 (50 bps)

23.4%

+3 altri esiti

Alta qualità (75)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale296,1K USD

Volume 24h4,6K USD

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

1.9 pt (24h)3m

95%

Sì

+1.9pt5%

Alta qualità (79)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale594,9K USD

Volume 24h1,9K USD

KALSHI

Fed decision in September?

20g

Hike 25bps

50.7%

Fed maintains rate

44%

Cut 25bps

2.4%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (62)Spread strettoLiquidità sconosciutaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale194,3K USD

Volume 24h3,7K USD

GEMINI

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

3.1 pt (24h)21g

4.82%

-20.0pt56%

4.85%

-0.5pt42%

4.91%

+2.0pt27%

+6 altri esiti

Qualità media (63)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale9,3K USD

Volume 24h6,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)

1.0 pt (24h)1m

H 0

+1.0pt63.3%

H 25

25.7%

C 25

5.5%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (56)Spread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume 24h7,1K USD

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.4 pt (24h)3m

4.0%

+0.3pt100%

3.9%

-0.9pt8%

3.5%

+6 altri esiti

Qualità media (70)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale247,4K USD

Volume 24h2K USD

POLYMARKET

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

-1.0pt33%

-1.0pt16%

-2.0pt14%

+3 altri esiti

Qualità media (72)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale116,1K USD

Volume 24h3,7K USD

KALSHI

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

6.0 pt (24h)3m

Stephen Miran

+7.7pt14%

Kevin Hassett

11%

Michelle Bowman

+9 altri esiti

Qualità media (60)Spread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale235,2K USD

Volume 24h1,2K USD

KALSHI

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

0.7 pt (24h)1m

No Change

-0.1pt89%

25 bps increase

-0.7pt11%

50+ bps increase

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (73)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale55,8K USD

Volume 24h4,2K USD

POLYMARKET

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change

81.2%

25 bps increase

-0.5pt18.8%

50+ bps decrease

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (50)Spread sconosciutoLiquidità media

Volume totale76,7K USD

Volume 24h2K USD

POLYMARKET

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

11.5 pt (24h)3m

↑ 6.50%

+13.4pt100%

↑ 6.30%

-1.5pt100%

↑ 6.20%

100%

+11 altri esiti

Qualità media (64)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale71,8K USD

Volume 24h1,8K USD

POLYMARKET

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

0.7 pt (24h)3m

95%

Sì

-0.7pt5%

Qualità media (56)Spread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale74,4K USD

Volume 24h1,4K USD

KALSHI

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0

-4.0pt44.3%

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0

-1.0pt40.6%

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0

11.3%

+3 altri esiti

Qualità media (70)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale84,5K USD

Volume 24h1,1K USD

KALSHI

Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?

5.0 pt (24h)23g

Above -25,000

94%

Above 0

85%

Above 10,000

82%

+10 altri esiti

Qualità media (63)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale32,9K USD

Volume 24h2,8K USD

KALSHI

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

2.7 pt (24h)3m

↓ 3.5%

+0.5pt100%

↑ 4.25%

+1.4pt26%

↑ 4.5%

+2.7pt8%

+18 altri esiti

Qualità media (73)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,8 Mln USD

Volume 24h541 USD

POLYMARKET

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

2.0 pt (24h)7g

Beth Hammack

-1.0pt43%

Neel Kashkari

-1.0pt42%

Lorie Logan

42%

+9 altri esiti

Qualità media (66)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale39K USD

Volume 24h1,5K USD

KALSHI

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted

38%

Reserve President Removed

17%

Presser Skipped

14%

+2 altri esiti

Qualità media (57)Spread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale39K USD

Volume 24h1K USD

KALSHI

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by which date?

0.3 pt (24h)3m

November 30

+1.5pt8%

December 31

+1.1pt7%

October 31

-0.5pt2%

+1 altri esiti

Qualità media (70)Spread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale17K USD

Volume 24h2,2K USD

POLYMARKET

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

3.5 pt (24h)21g

Below 4.76%

-3.5pt77%

Below 4.73%

-8.0pt68%

Below 4.70%

-17.0pt51%

+6 altri esiti

Qualità media (62)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale9,4K USD

Volume 24h2,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

1.8 pt (24h)3m

-1.8pt96%

Sì

+1.8pt4%

Qualità media (74)Spread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale13,7K USD

Volume 24h1,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

1.0 pt (24h)1m

Pause–Pause–Pause

-1.0pt34%

Pause–Pause–Cut

+0.1pt1%

Cut–Pause–Pause

+6 altri esiti

Alta qualità (75)Spread strettoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale748,7K USD

Volume 24h268 USD

POLYMARKET

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?

4.0 pt (24h)3m

December 31

-4.0pt13%

May 30

Qualità media (57)Spread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale445,2K USD

Volume 24h408,9 USD

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?

2.0 pt (24h)7g

Sì

56%

44%

Qualità media (56)Spread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume 24h3,9K USD

FORECASTEX

Asset Cripto Correlati

Fed Decision in September?

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Next Fed rate hike?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate decision in September 2026

Fed Decision in October?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Fed rate cut by which date?

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Fed Decision in December?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?

Fed Decision in January?

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Fed decision in September?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by which date?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?

Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?

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