AI | Mercati Predittivi

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17g

Anthropic

+3.4%89%

Google

-1.0%10%

OpenAI

-0.4%3%

+16 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale13,5 Mln USD

Volume 24h189,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6m

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+1.3%96%

↑$1.25T

+1.0%90%

+10 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,5 Mln USD

Volume 24h107,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17g

Anthropic

-1.5%91%

Google

OpenAI

+0.3%2%

+16 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,7 Mln USD

Volume 24h20,3K USD

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6m

December

+4.5%49%

September 30,

+1.0%12%

August

+1.9%5%

+3 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale2 Mln USD

Volume 24h18,6K USD

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17g

No IPO by June 30, 2026

99%

<100B

100–200B

+4 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,7 Mln USD

Volume 24h5,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,

90%

October 31,

69%

September 30,

16%

+3 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale272,3K USD

Volume 24h6,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Anthropic

81%

Google

-0.3%9%

OpenAI

-0.2%7%

+23 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale93,2K USD

Volume 24h6,2K USD

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1m

July 31

-1.1%96%

June 30

+3.0%92%

June 23

-2.0%54%

+6 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale889,2K USD

Volume 24h19K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17g

Anthropic

-0.1%96%

OpenAI

-0.1%3%

xAI

+0.3%1%

+26 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale65,8K USD

Volume 24h7,1K USD

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6m

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-6.0%51%

750B–1T

-0.1%13%

1T–1.25T

+1.6%12%

+4 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale1,8 Mln USD

Volume 24h5,6K USD

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6m

Sì

+0.0%8%

-0.0%92%

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1 Mln USD

Volume 24h12,6K USD

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6m

↑$900B

89%

↑$1.0T

+1.0%81%

↑$1.25T

+10.0%79%

+12 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquidità

Volume totale623,5K USD

Volume 24h9,5K USD

POLYMARKET

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4h

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+7.1%88%

Other

-9.4%9%

claude-opus-4-6

-0.1%0%

+3 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale158,9K USD

Volume 24h28,5K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17g

Anthropic

-1.0%87%

Google

+4.5%11%

OpenAI

+0.7%3%

+16 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale596,4K USD

Volume 24h4,2K USD

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1a

600B+

+1.5%95%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

300–400B

+0.3%1%

+4 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale356,9K USD

Volume 24h2,8K USD

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17g

June 23

+7.5%27%

No release by June 30

-0.3%18%

June 30

14%

+27 altri esiti

77 • Alta qualitàSpread sconosciutoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale109,2K USD

Volume 24h5,6K USD

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15g

June 22–June 28

-0.4%56%

June 15–June 21

+7.0%30%

Not released by June 28

-6.1%12%

+5 altri esiti

89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale148,8K USD

Volume 24h5,9K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17g

Anthropic

+1.5%89%

Google

OpenAI

-0.9%2%

+26 altri esiti

91 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoAlta liquidità

Volume totale98K USD

Volume 24h4,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17g

Alibaba

-3.0%80%

Z.ai

+2.0%18%

Moonshot

+3.7%5%

+22 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale40,8K USD

Volume 24h6,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1a

$2.5–$2.75T

-0.5%16%

$1.25–$1.5T

-0.5%16%

<$1.25T

+5.5%14%

+7 altri esiti

73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquidità

Volume totale19,3K USD

Volume 24h10,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17g

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

+1.8%5%

DeepSeek

+8 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale1,6 Mln USD

Volume 24h1,7K USD

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18g

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale377,8K USD

Volume 24h3,8K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17g

Google

-7.0%49%

Anthropic

+2.0%29%

OpenAI

+3.0%17%

+26 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale202,3K USD

Volume 24h3,6K USD

POLYMARKET

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

<30%

0.9%

30-40%

0.9%

40-50%

0.9%

+5 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità38 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale94,5K USD

Volume 24h44,4K USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18g

↑$850B

-14.5%39%

↓$800B

+1.3%31%

↑$875B

-4.0%20%

+9 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale197,8K USD

Volume 24h1,5K USD

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1a

1.8T+

-0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

-0.5%18%

1.5–1.8T

-0.1%18%

+4 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale147,7K USD

Volume 24h1,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19g

Perplexity

3.4%

Anthropic

1.1%

Mistral

2.9%

+3 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità48 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale151,9K USD

Volume 24h1,3K USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6m

Sì

+0.0%98%

-0.0%2%

91 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoAlta liquiditàVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale63,8K USD

Volume 24h4,4K USD

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1m

July 31

-1.4%95%

June 30

84%

June 26

+0.5%68%

+3 altri esiti

61 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale51,1K USD

Volume 24h6,8K USD

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6m

2026

-3.0%22%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Qualità mediaSpread moderatoLiquidità media

Volume totale2,9 Mln USD

Volume 24h2K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1m

Anthropic

-1.5%65%

Google

+7.0%20%

OpenAI

-3.0%7%

+23 altri esiti

80 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale7,6K USD

Volume 24h4,8K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1m

Anthropic

-10.0%66%

Google

+12.0%22%

OpenAI

+2.0%6%

+23 altri esiti

80 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale8,8K USD

Volume 24h3,1K USD

POLYMARKET

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump bans abortion nationwide

4.4%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

1.6%

+248 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità1,631 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale1 Mln USD

Volume 24h479,2 USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17g

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

-6.5%58%

+2 altri esiti

52 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale342,6K USD

Volume 24h2,3K USD

POLYMARKET

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

ARC-AGI

13%

FrontierMath

5.7%

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

48.1%

+3 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità6 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale9,6K USD

Volume 24h6,5K USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17g

June 30

+0.7%92%

June 19

-4.0%18%

June 12

-1.6%2%

+4 altri esiti

79 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoLiquidità mediaVicino alla risoluzione

Volume totale301,9K USD

Volume 24h2,1K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic

67%

Google

+2.0%18%

OpenAI

-1.0%10%

+23 altri esiti

80 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale7,7K USD

Volume 24h812,2 USD

POLYMARKET

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Earbuds/Headphones

+2.5%32%

Clip-on device for clothing

+0.5%21%

Glasses

19%

+7 altri esiti

68 • Qualità mediaSpread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale308K USD

Volume 24h1,2K USD

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1a

Anthropic

-0.1%76%

OpenAI

+0.1%24%

79 • Alta qualitàSpread strettoLiquidità media

Volume totale158,3K USD

Volume 24h4,9K USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1m

Anthropic

+0.5%78%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

+0.5%6%

+23 altri esiti

80 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquidità

Volume totale6,5K USD

Volume 24h1,4K USD

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19g

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità592 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale364,2K USD

Volume 24h350 USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Kill everyone - Liron

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

8.8%

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

34.5%

+36 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità301 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale72K USD

Volume 24h25K USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6m

None in 2026

-1.0%70%

Anthropic

-2.0%21%

OpenAI

+1.7%6%

+29 altri esiti

64 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale78,2K USD

Volume 24h436,6 USD

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17g

Anthropic

+0.5%86%

Google

-2.5%9%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6m

ChatGPT

-1.1%15%

Claude

-0.6%67%

Gemini

-3.1%12%

+4 altri esiti

80 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità

Volume totale54,1K USD

Volume 24h500,8 USD

KALSHI

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

11.4%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

100%

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

45.3%

+148 altri esiti

Previsione della comunità187 previsoriTipo: multiple choice

Volume totale73K USD

Volume 24h351,6 USD

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Google

56%

OpenAI

35%

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6m

Anthropic

-0.1%61%

OpenAI

+0.1%39%

68 • Qualità mediaSpread moderatoLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità

Volume totale27,3K USD

Volume 24h2,2K USD

POLYMARKET

IA

Asset Cripto Correlati

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

OpenAI IPO by...?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO by __?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Best AI model on June 13?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?