Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 70.5%
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Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
31 ago 26, 05:41 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?
- The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free.
- I'll try to resolve in this spirit.
- Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count.
- Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 71% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Rogue AIs before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Rogue AIs before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028?