Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 37.1%In testa tra 19 esiti
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-16.9 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto15 set 23, 17:01 UTC2 lug 30, 03:59 UTC
Trend
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.
- Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners.
- This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else.
- If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 230,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 77,1K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,5K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9K €
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 37% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 luglio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.