PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 83%-1.5pt
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$10.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
53.0% / 84.0%
Spread
31.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 2:57 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.