PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 20%-3.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquiditySpread
14.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-20.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 10:48 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Saudi Arabia.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 20% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date? resolve?
- Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).