PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%-0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$27.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 4.3%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 9:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
KalshiWill Trump deploy the US military to the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
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PolymarketWill any portion of Panama become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
- An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur.
- Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US takes Panama Canal before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US takes Panama Canal before 2027? resolve?
- US takes Panama Canal before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US takes Panama Canal before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.