Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
21.5 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East21d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 92%+14.5ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.8K
Liquidity
$21.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+34.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 8, 26, 4:25 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.