PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: October 31
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 8:07 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
October 31
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
78%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 8:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
October 31100%
October 31Won
October 15Lost
September 30Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
- A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces.
- Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
- Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident.