PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Sep 19, 2026, 4:06 AM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 20, 2026, 12:25 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
September 15100%
September 30100%
September 15Awaiting result
September 30Awaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time.
- A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces.
- Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
- Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident.