NATO country shoots down Israeli aircraft, missile, or drone before 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffPoliticsMiddle EastEurope4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataCurrent community forecastNo 56.1%
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13
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 21, 25, 3:39 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a NATO country has shot down an Israeli aircraft, missile or drone before January 1st 2031.
- Definitions & scope
- “NATO country” = the armed forces of any NATO member state, regardless of whether the action was under national or NATO command.
- “Israeli” = operated or under the control of Israel at the time (crewed aircraft, UAVs, ballistic/cruise missiles).
- Israeli-made exports used by others do not qualify.
- “Shot down” = the object was destroyed or made combat-ineffective in flight by kinetic weapons (e.g., SAM, AAM, gun) or directed energy causing a crash/destruction.