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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?

Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?

1.1% (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 2%+0.0%
Market quality

68 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$930.6

Liquidity

$24.1K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.3% / 2.4%

Spread

4.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

May 18, 26, 2:16 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes2%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.