Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by...?
US PoliticsOne-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 19%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$628.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 2:12 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3119%
Volume trend
$8Jul 55d of dataJul 11
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
- Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.