Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffPoliticsLatin AmericaGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 4%-1.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$23.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
23
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 2:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
- Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
