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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

2.4% (24h)One-OffPoliticsLatin America18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 20%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$5.2K

Liquidity

$45.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.8% / 6.0%

Spread

3.5%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+1.9%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

May 18, 26, 2:16 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
May 31
May 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3120%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
  • Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
  • A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
  • Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.