Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffPoliticsLatin AmericaGeopolitics2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 5%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 5%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$13.8K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
23
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 2:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
June 30Lost
May 31Lost
Venue terms
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Market depth · December 31
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
- Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
