Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 90%
No 90%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
5
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0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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PolymarketRules
This market predicts whether former Cuban president Raúl Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody before January 1º, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC.
- If, at any point before that deadline, U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raúl Castro, regardless of location or duration, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is official information from the U.S. government (U.S. Department of Justice press releases, the FBI, the State Department, the White House) and a consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Castro's presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity do not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Castro submits to U.S. custody does qualify.
