Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 22, 25, 5:01 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Raúl Castro, born June 3, 1931, dies before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will be confirmed through major news outlets reporting his death.
- The market resolves NO if he remains alive through December 31, 2026.
- Raúl Castro served as President of Cuba between 2008 and 2018 and announced his retirement at the Eighth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba in April 2021.
- The retired general is 94 years old as of October 2025.
Open markets
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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+16 more outcomes
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Raul Castro dies before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Raul Castro dies before 2027? resolve?
- Raul Castro dies before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Raul Castro dies before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria