Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 22, 25, 5:01 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Raúl Castro, born June 3, 1931, dies before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will be confirmed through major news outlets reporting his death.
- The market resolves NO if he remains alive through December 31, 2026.
- Raúl Castro served as President of Cuba between 2008 and 2018 and announced his retirement at the Eighth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba in April 2021.
- The retired general is 94 years old as of October 2025.