Current implied probability
14-17% 44.2%-2.0ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.4K
Liquidity
$31.6K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:21 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
- Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party.
- Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share??
- Polymarket prices 14-17% at 44% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share? resolve?
- Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.