Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Liberal/National Coalition 70.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Liberal/National Coalition 70.1%Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.7 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 23, 4:47 AM UTCNov 27, 26, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jess Wilson become Premier of Victoria after the 28 November 2026 state election?
Manifold MarketsNext Premier of Victoria
PolymarketPremier of Victoria at the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWho will be Premier of Victoria after the 2026 election?
KalshiIndiana Secretary of State Election Winner
PolymarketGeorgia Secretary of State Election Winner
PolymarketRules
The next Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.
- I expect we'll know the answer shortly afterwards.
- I've set betting to close the day before the election.
- I'll resolve this soon as we have a clear answer.
- I'll use the acting Premier to resolve this, however I don't think that will impactthe result, since I'd expect that to usually be the Premier proper, or someone from the same party/coalition.
- "Other" will cover any edge cases not covered by the 2 main options.