Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast5+ 63.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 27, 26, 8:07 PM UTCNov 28, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If X happens in the Victorian state election, will the Coalition overtake One Nation in national polls in December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party or coalition will win the primary vote in the 2026 Victorian state election?
Manifold Markets2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner
Manifold MarketsWhat combination of parties will form executive government after the 2026 Victorian state election?
Manifold MarketsVictorian state election winner?
KalshiAlaska Senate election: number of rounds
KalshiRules
The orange tide is sweeping the nation as the LNP brand collapses, but Victoria is the place One Nation finds it hardest to succeed - usually.
- What will happen this November?
- Question refers to Lower House seats only - i.e. seats in the Legislative assembly.
- (The legislative assembly is the Victoria equivalent of the house of representatives federally.
- The question does NOT include the upper house, i.e. the Legislative Council, which is the equivalent of the Senate.)
- It will be resolved ASAP after the election, which may mean after recounts and any court cases if they affect the answer!
