Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
The Coalition wins the most seats 50%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 12, 26, 6:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market contains multiple independent options corresponding to different outcomes ("Condition X") in the Victorian state election scheduled for 28 November 2026.
- Each option resolves as follows:
- N/A if the specified condition does not occur according to official election results published by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) or a consensus of credible media outlets.
- YES if the specified condition occurs and the Coalition leads Pauline Hanson's One Nation in the national primary vote opinion polling average in Victoria at the end of December 2026 (i.e., the Coalition's primary vote percentage is strictly higher than One Nation's).
- See below for how the polling averages are calculated.
