MyriadCurrent implied probability
Yes 7.5%-0.2%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$500
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 4:01 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes8%
Related Markets
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$1MDecember 31: 36%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by...?
$409.1KAugust 31: 34%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
$374.9KDecember 31: 48%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
$220.1KBefore September: 13%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.NewsIran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%Blockchain.News
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.