Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 7:33 PM UTCJun 6, 28, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
WW3: Begins With Ukraine
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketIsrael x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketWill Russia and/or China get involved with the US/Israel and Iran situation before May begins
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a World War III begins in 2026.
- A "world war" applies to armed conflicts between major world powers spanning multiple regions of the globe.
- Resolution requires:
- Direct military conflict between major powers (US, China, Russia, or equivalent) across multiple geographic regions
- Formal declarations of war or equivalent by at least two major powers against each other, or undeniable open hostilities that persist for a sustained period
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for WW3 begins in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does WW3 begins in 2026 resolve?
- WW3 begins in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on June 6, 2028.
- How is WW3 begins in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria