Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 11:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiRules
alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"
- Resolves YES on:
- any temporary, "you must delay release to allow US gov to use first" situations, or
- any model being pulled from public availability, for any amount of time
- any model being restricted to US only or similar
- Not enough to count:
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.4%
- 25 bps increase+11.0pt45.6%
- 25 bps decrease-1.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.8M
- 24h Vol
- $3.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.3pt93%
- Yes+2.3pt7%
- Total Vol
- $21.5M
- 24h Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.7M
- 24h Vol
- $567.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-8.0pt40.8%
- Before Dec 1, 202632.5%
- Before Nov 1, 202614.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $531.4K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+4.0pt56.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt30.7%
- Republicans sweep-2.0pt11.9%
+1 more outcomes
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Maine Senate winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 16, 2026.
- When does Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? resolve?
- Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: alt title: "Musk and Trump no longer bffs?"