Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?
Health & MedicineOne-Off3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 24, 2:26 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The US National Institutes of Health announced a clinical trial of an HIV vaccine in 2023, and says that "initial results are expected in late 2024" (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/clinical-trial-hiv-vaccine-begins-united-states-south-africa).
- Resolves YES if this or another AIDS vaccine is FDA-approved and legally accessible in the US (even if there are shortages or other logistical limitations) at any point before 2027.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027? resolve?
- Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The US National Institutes of Health announced a clinical trial of an HIV vaccine in 2023, and says that "initial results are expected in late 2024" (https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/clinical-trial-hiv-vaccine-begins-united-states-south-africa).