Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

BitcoinOne-OffCrypto Fed Regulation Stablecoin4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 68.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 41 minutes ago

Sep 6, 23, 1:10 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the Federal Reserve's official website https://www.federalreserve.gov stating that a US retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) aka “digital dollar” has officially gone live and has become available for use by the public before January 1, 2031.

Here is a definition of a CBDC according to the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/cbdc-faqs.htm
[link preview]

Open markets

Bitcoin

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 23?

↓ 81,00038%
↓ 80,0004%
↓ 79,0002%

+13 more outcomes

Total Vol: $312.8K
24h Vol: $313.2K

KALSHI

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

No98.5%
Yes+1.0pt1.5%

Total Vol: $12.8M
24h Vol: $251.8K

POLYMARKET

Bitcoin above ___ on October 24?

72,000+0.4pt100%
74,000+0.5pt100%
76,000+0.7pt100%

+8 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

↑ 82,00064%
↓ 80,000-19.0pt28%
↑ 84,000-18.0pt7%

+17 more outcomes

KALSHI

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

80,000 to 84,999.99+0.7pt14.9%
75,000 to 79,999.99+0.1pt14.3%
85,000 to 89,999.99

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

↑ 82,500-5.0pt75%
↓ 80,000-4.5pt68%
↑ 85,000-6.5pt36%

+35 more outcomes

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031??: Manifold Markets prices No at 68.7% as of October 23, 2026.
When does Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031? resolve?: Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
How is Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the Federal Reserve's official website https://www.federalreserve.gov stating that a US retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) aka “digital dollar” has officially gone live and has become available for use by the public before January 1, 2031.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/will-a-retail-cbdc-central-bank-dig

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp

Data API docs Connect an agent

Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Open markets

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 23?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 24?

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Related Cryptos

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 23?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 24?

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?