Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 73%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 26, 4:45 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Viktor Orbán establishes legal residence in the United States or is granted asylum/protected status by the U.S. government at any point between the market's creation and December 31, 2028.
- It resolves to NO if he does not.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the U.S. government, credible international news reporting, or documented legal proceedings confirming his arrival or residency status.
- Viktor Orbán has served as the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010.
- His political stance is often characterized by conservative nationalist policies and has frequently drawn criticism from European Union institutions and international organizations.
