Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
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Updated 15 minutes ago
Oct 27, 25, 3:29 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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MetaculusRules
Under the Rijkswet op het Nederlanderschap (RWN), the general rule for regular naturalization is 5 years of continuous lawful residence.
- The Dutch cabinet announced its intent to move this to 10 years.
- This market is about whether that change actually becomes law.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES if an amendment to the RWN that sets the standard residency requirement for regular naturalization to 10 years (or more) is published in the Staatsblad (official Gazette) on or before 2026-12-31.
- Entry-into-force may occur later; publication in the Staatsblad with the 10-year rule is sufficient.
