Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Geopolitics

MetaculusClosed

This market resolved: No (99.9%)

Current community forecast

Yes 0.1%

Forecasters

978

Question type

binary

Methodology

Community forecast

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 44 days ago

Stale

Nov 15, 16, 7:46 PMJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes0.1%

No99.9%

Outcome24hChance

Yes

0.1%

99.9%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

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Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Geopolitics

MetaculusClosed

This market resolved: No (99.9%)

Current community forecast

Yes 0.1%

Forecasters

978

Question type

binary

Methodology

Community forecast

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 44 days ago

Stale

Nov 15, 16, 7:46 PMJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes0.1%

No99.9%

Outcome24hChance

Yes

0.1%

99.9%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

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December 31: 68%

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July 31: 56%

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Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

$966.6K

June 30: 31%