Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Mox Opal 9.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 17, 24, 12:00 AM UTCDec 17, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump Class Battleship be built or will the US Navy determine it is wasteful and unnecessary for modern warfare
Manifold MarketsWill any of the Magic: The Gathering "culturally insensitive cards" be reprinted or unbanned by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Four cards were just unbanned in the Magic: the Gathering format Modern today.
- These cards were formerly quite powerful, but there has been a lot of "power creep" in the format.
- Many are saying that the named outcome won't even be played, for example — but the named outcome wasn't expected to be unbanned, and could still be broken.
- SaffronOlive asks on Twitter what odds people think of a reban, and gives these:
- [image]Resolves based on official Wizards of the Coast ban announcements.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.5pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+6.5pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $567K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt84.2%
- Yes-4.5pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
- 24h Vol
- $274.9K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.4pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $221.4K
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)??
- Manifold Markets prices Mox Opal at 10% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)? resolve?
- Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)? is scheduled to resolve on December 17, 2026.
- How is Which cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Four cards were just unbanned in the Magic: the Gathering format Modern today.