Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Dec 13, 25, 5:56 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 12:58 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will victor orban flee to US by EOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Yulia Navalnaya run for President of Russia before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWho will run for president in 2028?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiRules
Currently president position is symbolic in Hungary.
- It is speculated by some journalists he may attempt to increase the power of the president while he is prime minister, and then run for the president position to stay in power.
- Update 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve by the end of 2029 (when the next indirect voting for president takes place).
- Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve early if Orban dies
- Market can resolve YES even if Hungary splits, gets renamed, or changes constitution (does not require Orban to be president of the same state)
