KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 75%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$541.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 25.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 2:00 PM UTCMar 1, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Manchin run for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Stephen A. Smith announce a run for president before 2028?
PredictItWill Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill AOC run for President or for the Senate in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Joe Manchin has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028? resolve?
- Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2028.
- How is Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Joe Manchin has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.