Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
6.0% (24h)RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityOther 50%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25
Liquidity
$35.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 17.0%
Spread
30.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jul 10, 26, 1:36 AMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Other50%
Volume trend
$25Jul 104d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise.
- An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
- The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A.
- An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority.
- A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
- If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".