Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 4:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Venezuela (through its government, military, or state-affiliated actors) takes any direct military, cyber, or armed action against U.S. targets, personnel, or interests in response to the January 2026 U.S. strikes.
- This includes attacks on U.S. military assets, diplomatic facilities, or U.S. citizens abroad.
- The action must occur within 12 months of January 3, 2026,.
- On January 3, 2026, the United States military attacked Venezuela, capturing sitting Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.
- The attack, codenamed Absolute Resolve, began around 02:00 a.m. local time when explosions were observed.
