Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 9%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$150
Liquidity
$14.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
12.5%
Wide spread7d Change
+3.0%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 7:12 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes9%
Volume trend
$150Jul 218d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify.
- Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily.
- Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.