Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$21K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 7:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify.
- Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily.
- Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US capture another world leader in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 94% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.