Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
0.3 pts (24h)US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 97%
No 97%Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3
Liquidity
$38.8K
High liquidityOpen interest
$19.2K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
3
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingJan 5, 26, 7:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · No
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify.
- Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
- For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily.
- Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
