Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 91.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$17.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
18
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 9:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 91% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? resolve?
- Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.