Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$180.4
Liquidity
$27.4K
High liquidityOpen interest
$30.9K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
18
7d Change
-4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 4, 26, 9:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.