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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

YearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 23%
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$12.8

Liquidity

$24.1K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

22.0% / 23.0%

Spread

4.5%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-0.5%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Jan 4, 26, 9:05 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes23%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.