Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
1.5% (24h)US PoliticsYearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 15%-0.0%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$859.4
Liquidity
$18K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 9:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes15%
Large trades
$3.0k79.0%POLYMARKETNoArmageddonRewardsBilly20d ago
POLYMARKETNoArmageddonRewardsBilly20d agoVolume trend
$859Jul 224d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.