Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?
YearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaElection2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 95%
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84
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 4, 22, 2:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20).
- Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election.
- Will the pink tide recede?
- A country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president.
- A majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1).
- Latin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.
