Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?
YearlyPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin AmericaElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75%
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79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 4, 22, 2:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20).
- Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election.
- Will the pink tide recede?
- A country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president.
- A majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1).
- Latin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.