Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 92.4%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 25, 5:46 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.
- Will any such major world leader call for a global pause on AI development/progress before the end of 2027? The pause would not need to be absolute to qualify, but a pause on certain use cases (eg, weaponry or surveillance) would not suffice.
- I will not bet on this market.