Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 89.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 25, 5:46 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.
- Will any such major world leader call for a global pause on AI development/progress before the end of 2027? The pause would not need to be absolute to qualify, but a pause on certain use cases (eg, weaponry or surveillance) would not suffice.
- I will not bet on this market.
Open markets
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- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+5 more outcomes
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- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? resolve?
- Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For this market, "world leader" is defined as any head of government or head of state of any country which has a population of at least five million people.