Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 3:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 75.7%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 19, 24, 12:52 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Chuck Schumer publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
KalshiWho will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Clarifications:
- the halt does not need to be permanent
- the halt must target a broad swath of frontier AI research
- the halt must apply to all serious countries
- the person has to say call for it seriously, i.e. not as a joke.
- the person doesn't need to have a super specific plan in mind as long as it's clear what they mean.